Lincoln City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.7%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.6%
2-0
7%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.6%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.5%
26.6%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.6%
33.7%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
0-1
9.4%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.5%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lincoln City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2004 |
SCU
3 - 2
LIN
44%
26%
30%
|
58 | 54 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2004 |
LIN
1 - 3
RUS
55%
24%
21%
|
59 | 52 | 7 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 2004 |
LIN
1 - 1
SOU
57%
24%
19%
|
59 | 51 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2004 |
STF
0 - 1
LIN
43%
26%
31%
|
59 | 55 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2004 |
LIN
2 - 3
YEO
44%
25%
31%
|
59 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2004 |
QPR
0 - 2
DER
55%
25%
20%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2004 |
DER
3 - 2
IPS
30%
25%
45%
|
61 | 73 | 12 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2004 |
DER
1 - 2
LEI
27%
25%
48%
|
61 | 76 | 15 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2004 |
LEE
1 - 0
DER
79%
15%
7%
|
62 | 81 | 19 | -1 |
| 09 May. 2004 |
WIM
1 - 0
DER
40%
27%
33%
|
64 | 56 | 8 | -2 |