Limonest vs Arles analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
14.6%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.8%
2-0
2%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.4%
1-0
4.7%
2-1
4.1%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
10.1%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.3%
65.2%
Win probability
2.04
Expected goals
0-1
11.5%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
11.7%
1-3
6.7%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
19.9%
0-3
7.9%
1-4
3.4%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11.9%
0-4
4%
1-5
1.4%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5.6%
0-5
1.6%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.2%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov. 2012 |
ARL
0 - 0
LMU
35%
28%
37%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2012 |
IST
0 - 1
ARL
53%
25%
21%
|
61 | 65 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2012 |
ARL
0 - 3
STL
46%
28%
26%
|
62 | 60 | 2 | -1 |
| 02 Nov. 2012 |
NÎM
4 - 1
ARL
53%
25%
22%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | -1 |
| 30 Oct. 2012 |
REN
1 - 0
ARL
77%
15%
7%
|
63 | 84 | 21 | 0 |