Q. Europa League Play Offs Final
Global 6-3
Lille vs Genk analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.9%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.1%
2-0
11.5%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.4%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
15.8%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.9%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lille
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2009 |
LIL
1 - 1
TFC
55%
24%
21%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2009 |
GNK
1 - 2
LIL
36%
29%
35%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2009 |
MAR
1 - 0
LIL
62%
22%
16%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2009 |
LIL
1 - 2
LOR
63%
22%
15%
|
87 | 80 | 7 | -1 |
| 06 Aug. 2009 |
LIL
2 - 0
SLO
81%
14%
5%
|
86 | 58 | 28 | +1 |
Matches
Genk
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2009 |
KVC
0 - 1
GNK
32%
26%
42%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2009 |
GNK
1 - 2
LIL
36%
29%
35%
|
74 | 86 | 12 | -1 |
| 15 Aug. 2009 |
GNK
1 - 1
GEN
38%
25%
37%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2009 |
ZUL
2 - 2
GNK
44%
24%
32%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | -1 |
| 25 Jul. 2009 |
SDL
2 - 0
GNK
68%
18%
14%
|
77 | 86 | 9 | -2 |