Lille vs Caen analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.6%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.5%
2-0
11.8%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.3%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.6%
13.8%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lille
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 2010 |
LIL
1 - 3
MAR
45%
25%
30%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2010 |
LIL
1 - 0
LSO
70%
19%
11%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 2010 |
LYO
3 - 1
LIL
51%
25%
24%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 2010 |
LIL
3 - 1
MPL
70%
18%
11%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2010 |
GEN
1 - 1
LIL
34%
27%
39%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Caen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2010 |
ASS
1 - 1
CAE
49%
25%
26%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2010 |
CAE
0 - 0
MON
36%
28%
36%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2010 |
VAL
2 - 1
CAE
45%
26%
29%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | -1 |
| 25 Sep. 2010 |
CAE
0 - 0
GIR
17%
23%
60%
|
79 | 89 | 10 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2010 |
ARL
0 - 1
CAE
21%
24%
55%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | +1 |