Conference League Quarter-finals
Global 3-3
Lille vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
33.1%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.5%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
3.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.4%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
7.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.8%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.5%
41.3%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
21.5%
0-2
6.9%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.3%
0-3
3.3%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.2%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lille
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr. 2024 |
ASV
2 - 1
LIL
66%
20%
15%
|
89 | 92 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2024 |
LIL
3 - 1
MAR
47%
25%
28%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2024 |
LIL
2 - 1
LEN
50%
25%
25%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
BRE
1 - 1
LIL
30%
27%
43%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2024 |
LIL
1 - 1
STR
67%
19%
14%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
ARS
0 - 2
ASV
68%
19%
13%
|
92 | 97 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 2024 |
ASV
2 - 1
LIL
66%
20%
15%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
ASV
3 - 3
BRE
58%
22%
20%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2024 |
MAC
4 - 1
ASV
82%
13%
6%
|
92 | 100 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
ASV
2 - 0
WOL
59%
22%
19%
|
92 | 90 | 2 | 0 |