Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 5-1
Liga de Quito vs Trujillanos analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.2%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.9%
4-0
5%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7%
3-0
9.2%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.7%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.1%
1-0
11.3%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.2%
11.6%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Liga de Quito
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep. 2011 |
LIG
1 - 0
ESP
76%
16%
8%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2011 |
CUE
2 - 1
LIG
35%
29%
36%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2011 |
LIG
0 - 0
BSC
61%
22%
16%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2011 |
NAC
2 - 3
LIG
48%
27%
25%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2011 |
LIG
1 - 0
YAR
76%
15%
9%
|
78 | 61 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Trujillanos
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Sep. 2011 |
DEP
1 - 1
TRU
45%
28%
27%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2011 |
TRU
1 - 1
CAR
56%
25%
19%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2011 |
MIN
2 - 0
TRU
47%
27%
26%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | -1 |
| 20 Aug. 2011 |
TRU
4 - 0
LLA
76%
17%
7%
|
67 | 47 | 20 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2011 |
CFC
1 - 0
TRU
58%
24%
18%
|
67 | 73 | 6 | 0 |