Conmebol Sudamericana Semi-finals
Global 3-0
Liga de Quito vs Vélez Sarsfield analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.9%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.3%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.4%
1-0
10%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.8%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
32.3%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.7%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.1%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Liga de Quito
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov. 2011 |
IVT
2 - 0
LIG
41%
27%
32%
|
80 | 70 | 10 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2011 |
MAN
0 - 0
LIG
24%
29%
47%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2011 |
LIB
1 - 0
LIG
52%
24%
23%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2011 |
LIG
2 - 1
NAC
61%
22%
16%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2011 |
LIG
1 - 0
LIB
59%
22%
19%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Vélez Sarsfield
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov. 2011 |
BEL
1 - 3
VEL
31%
27%
42%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2011 |
VEL
3 - 2
SFE
62%
22%
16%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2011 |
VEL
0 - 0
BOC
52%
25%
23%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2011 |
SFE
1 - 1
VEL
36%
27%
37%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2011 |
ARG
3 - 1
VEL
28%
28%
44%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |