Conmebol Sudamericana Semi-finals
Global 2-3
Liga de Quito vs Bolívar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.8%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.2%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.6%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.3%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
19.4%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.4%
13.8%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Liga de Quito
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov. 2004 |
LIG
1 - 2
CUE
59%
22%
19%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2004 |
SAN
1 - 2
LIG
73%
17%
10%
|
78 | 86 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 2004 |
OLM
4 - 2
LIG
40%
25%
35%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2004 |
LIG
1 - 1
NAC
60%
22%
18%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2004 |
LIG
3 - 2
SAN
30%
25%
45%
|
78 | 86 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Bolívar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Nov. 2004 |
JWI
1 - 0
BOL
52%
24%
24%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2004 |
BOL
6 - 2
BLO
67%
18%
15%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 2004 |
BOL
2 - 0
STR
67%
19%
15%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2004 |
BOL
3 - 0
ARS
58%
22%
20%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 2004 |
UNI
2 - 3
BOL
32%
29%
40%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | 0 |