Licata vs ASD Castrumfavara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
79.2%
Win probability
2.83
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1%
6-0
1.9%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.6%
5-0
4%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.8%
4-0
7.1%
5-1
3.2%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
11%
3-0
10%
4-1
5.7%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.2%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.3%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.9%
13%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
6%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
13%
7.8%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
5.6%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-49%
+494%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
18º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
1
8º
18º
13º
2
13º
18º
18º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
3º
|
6 | 75 |
1º
|
56.5% | |
|
2º
|
6 | 72 |
2º
|
39.5% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 61 |
3º
|
20.5% | |
|
1º
|
9 | 57 |
4º
|
15.5% | |
|
16º
|
1 | 55 |
5º
|
9.5% | |
|
15º
|
2 | 51 |
6º
|
9.5% | |
|
4º
|
6 | 51 |
7º
|
10% | |
|
5º
|
6 | 51 |
8º
|
3.5% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 50 |
9º
|
7% | |
|
17º
|
1 | 47 |
10º
|
9% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 46 |
11º
|
7.5% | |
|
13º
|
2 | 44 |
12º
|
12% | |
|
|
18º
|
1 | 43 |
13º
|
12% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 40 |
14º
|
15% | |
|
7º
|
5 | 38 |
15º
|
15.5% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 27 |
16º
|
31% | |
|
8º
|
5 | 25 |
17º
|
30% | |
|
|
14º
|
2 | 19 |
18º
|
52% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
50.5% | 0.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
40.5% | 19.5% |
|
Relegation
|
4% | 80% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Licata
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
SSS
4 - 0
LIC
46%
22%
32%
|
37 | 35 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
LIC
1 - 2
LOC
48%
25%
28%
|
38 | 36 | 2 | -1 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
SAN
2 - 2
LIC
42%
27%
31%
|
37 | 39 | 2 | +1 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
USV
4 - 2
LIC
67%
21%
13%
|
38 | 49 | 11 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 2024 |
LIC
3 - 1
USC
59%
21%
20%
|
37 | 32 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
ASD Castrumfavara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
FAR
2 - 0
AKR
10%
15%
75%
|
7 | 38 | 31 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
ACI
1 - 0
FAR
80%
13%
7%
|
7 | 42 | 35 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
FAR
0 - 0
ENN
48%
21%
31%
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |