Venezuelan Cup 1/16
Global 2-4
Libertador vs Aragua FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
11.4%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
1.4%
3-1
0.9%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.6%
1-0
3.4%
2-1
3.3%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
8%
17%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
8%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
17%
71.6%
Win probability
2.38
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.8%
0-2
11.3%
1-3
7.5%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21%
0-3
9%
1-4
4.5%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
14.5%
0-4
5.3%
1-5
2.1%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
7.9%
0-5
2.5%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
3.5%
0-6
1%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.3%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Libertador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2018 |
PDA
2 - 0
LIB
39%
26%
35%
|
39 | 35 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2018 |
LIB
0 - 3
MIR
52%
25%
23%
|
41 | 40 | 1 | -2 |
| 25 Jul. 2018 |
LAL
1 - 0
LIB
33%
26%
41%
|
42 | 35 | 7 | -1 |
| 18 Jul. 2018 |
UCV
0 - 3
LIB
33%
24%
43%
|
41 | 36 | 5 | +1 |
| 11 Jul. 2018 |
LIB
0 - 0
MIR
49%
24%
27%
|
41 | 40 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Aragua FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2018 |
ARA
1 - 3
EST
38%
26%
36%
|
59 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2018 |
TRU
2 - 0
ARA
42%
26%
32%
|
59 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2018 |
ARA
1 - 0
POR
42%
26%
32%
|
59 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2018 |
CAR
2 - 0
ARA
61%
23%
16%
|
60 | 70 | 10 | -1 |
| 26 May. 2018 |
ARA
0 - 0
CAR
28%
28%
44%
|
59 | 70 | 11 | +1 |