Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 3-3
Libertad vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.8%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.6%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.8%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.8%
25.3%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.3%
31.9%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.3%
0-2
5%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
+15%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2003 |
LIB
3 - 2
LQE
57%
23%
20%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2003 |
NAC
3 - 0
LIB
61%
21%
18%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2003 |
AME
2 - 1
LIB
26%
26%
49%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | -1 |
| 14 Sep. 2003 |
LIB
0 - 1
SPC
74%
17%
10%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2003 |
12O
0 - 0
LIB
20%
25%
54%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 2003 |
NAC
1 - 2
FEN
65%
18%
17%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2003 |
NAC
3 - 0
LIB
61%
21%
18%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | -1 |
| 21 Sep. 2003 |
LFC
0 - 1
NAC
36%
24%
40%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | +1 |
| 18 Sep. 2003 |
NAC
2 - 2
DAN
68%
18%
15%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2003 |
CSM
1 - 1
NAC
29%
26%
45%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | 0 |