Libertad vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.2%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.2%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.6%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.3%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
20%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
19.9%
21.9%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+19%
+12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb. 1968 |
LIB
1 - 0
PEÑ
42%
24%
34%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 1968 |
LIB
1 - 1
GUA
60%
21%
20%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 1968 |
NAC
4 - 0
LIB
70%
17%
13%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 1968 |
PEÑ
4 - 0
LIB
70%
17%
13%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | -1 |
| 02 Feb. 1968 |
GUA
2 - 0
LIB
56%
21%
23%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb. 1968 |
GUA
2 - 1
NAC
45%
23%
32%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 1968 |
NAC
0 - 0
PEÑ
56%
21%
23%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 1968 |
NAC
4 - 0
LIB
70%
17%
13%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 1968 |
NAC
2 - 2
GUA
72%
16%
12%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 1968 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
NAC
60%
20%
20%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |