Libertad vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.4%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.1%
1-0
11.3%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
12%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.1%
25.4%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15.9%
0-2
4%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.7%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
16
1º
8º
5º
19
2º
6º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
24 | 41 |
1º
|
60% | |
|
|
2º
|
19 | 34 |
2º
|
20% | |
|
3º
|
18 | 33 |
3º
|
12% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 33 |
4º
|
17% | |
|
|
6º
|
16 | 33 |
5º
|
10.5% | |
|
5º
|
16 | 31 |
6º
|
15% | |
|
7º
|
16 | 30 |
7º
|
10% | |
|
8º
|
14 | 29 |
8º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
12 | 29 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
10º
|
11 | 23 |
10º
|
24% | |
|
11º
|
9 | 23 |
11º
|
35.5% | |
|
12º
|
4 | 16 |
12º
|
70% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
CONMEBOL Libertadores
|
5.5% | 9.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
94.5% | 90.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul. 2024 |
UCE
1 - 1
LIB
49%
24%
27%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
TAC
2 - 4
LIB
42%
26%
32%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Jul. 2024 |
LIB
2 - 0
UCE
46%
24%
30%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | -1 |
| 06 Jun. 2024 |
OLI
1 - 3
LIB
48%
25%
27%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | +1 |
| 02 Jun. 2024 |
LIB
2 - 0
JLM
49%
25%
26%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 0
SPT
39%
26%
34%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 2
CCP
45%
27%
29%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2024 |
TAC
2 - 5
NAC
43%
27%
30%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 May. 2024 |
ARG
2 - 1
NAC
61%
22%
17%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2024 |
NAC
3 - 0
AME
42%
27%
31%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |