Libertad vs Guaraní analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.9%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
8%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.5%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.8%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
29.3%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
7%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.6%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
19
1º
8º
4º
18
4º
8º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
25 | 40 |
1º
|
52% | |
|
2º
|
22 | 37 |
2º
|
28.5% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 36 |
3º
|
24.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
19 | 34 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
6º
|
18 | 32 |
5º
|
15.5% | |
|
7º
|
17 | 31 |
6º
|
20.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
18 | 30 |
7º
|
9.5% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 29 |
8º
|
11% | |
|
9º
|
13 | 25 |
9º
|
24% | |
|
10º
|
11 | 22 |
10º
|
25% | |
|
11º
|
10 | 22 |
11º
|
32% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 19 |
12º
|
56% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
CONMEBOL Libertadores
|
10% | 1.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
90% | 98.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 2024 |
CRZ
1 - 1
LIB
67%
20%
13%
|
76 | 87 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
LIB
1 - 0
TAC
53%
24%
22%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
LIB
0 - 2
CRZ
32%
28%
40%
|
77 | 87 | 10 | -1 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
LIB
2 - 1
CCP
46%
26%
28%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 Sep. 2024 |
AME
0 - 1
LIB
41%
27%
32%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2024 |
GUA
0 - 0
SPT
43%
27%
30%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2024 |
GUA
0 - 0
OLI
41%
28%
31%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2024 |
GUA
0 - 0
NAC
42%
28%
31%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
TAC
1 - 2
GUA
37%
27%
36%
|
77 | 73 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
GUA
1 - 0
CCP
40%
28%
33%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |