Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 1-3
Libertad vs Cerro Porteño analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.4%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.4%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.8%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
26%
Draw
0-0
8.4%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26%
24.6%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
6%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15.9%
0-2
4%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.4%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug. 2004 |
OLI
2 - 0
LIB
36%
26%
38%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2004 |
LIB
1 - 0
GUA
58%
23%
18%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2004 |
CCP
1 - 1
LIB
48%
24%
28%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2004 |
AME
1 - 2
LIB
24%
25%
51%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | +1 |
| 26 Jun. 2004 |
LIB
3 - 0
SPC
75%
17%
9%
|
78 | 62 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Cerro Porteño
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug. 2004 |
TAC
0 - 0
CCP
31%
27%
42%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2004 |
CCP
3 - 0
12O
71%
19%
10%
|
79 | 63 | 16 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2004 |
CCP
1 - 1
LIB
48%
24%
28%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2004 |
CCP
3 - 0
NAC
63%
21%
15%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 2004 |
OLI
1 - 1
CCP
40%
27%
33%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |