Copa Libertadores Quarter-finals
Global 5-3
Libertad vs River Plate analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.5%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.9%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
4.1%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.7%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.8%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.4%
35.1%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
8%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
19.4%
0-2
5.6%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.1%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jun. 2006 |
LQE
1 - 3
LIB
43%
26%
31%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 May. 2006 |
LIB
2 - 1
TAC
60%
22%
18%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2006 |
CCP
0 - 2
LIB
48%
25%
26%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2006 |
LIB
3 - 1
OLI
63%
21%
16%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2006 |
2DE
0 - 0
LIB
27%
27%
47%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May. 2006 |
QUI
1 - 3
RIV
20%
24%
57%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2006 |
RIV
2 - 2
LIB
65%
20%
15%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2006 |
RIV
0 - 2
RAC
71%
17%
11%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2006 |
COR
1 - 3
RIV
51%
24%
25%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2006 |
GLP
3 - 3
RIV
39%
25%
36%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |