Lens vs Stade Brestois analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.4%
Win probability
1.92
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.4%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
11%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.7%
17.8%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.9%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
8
3º
7º
6º
3
11º
18º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
12 | 80 |
1º
|
82.5% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 68 |
2º
|
36% | |
|
2º
|
10 | 64 |
3º
|
17.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 58 |
4º
|
17% | |
|
8º
|
6 | 58 |
5º
|
18.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
8 | 57 |
6º
|
18% | |
|
13º
|
4 | 56 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
12º
|
4 | 47 |
8º
|
12% | |
|
11º
|
5 | 45 |
9º
|
14.5% | |
|
6º
|
7 | 44 |
10º
|
9.5% | |
|
10º
|
5 | 42 |
11º
|
9.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
3 | 41 |
12º
|
11% | |
|
18º
|
1 | 38 |
13º
|
12% | |
|
15º
|
3 | 34 |
14º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
6 | 33 |
15º
|
12% | |
|
5º
|
7 | 32 |
16º
|
16% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 31 |
17º
|
18% | |
|
17º
|
1 | 25 |
18º
|
52.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
15% | 0.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
13% | 1.5% |
|
Europa League
|
18% | 1% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
18% | 4.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
36% | 81.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 6% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lens
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug. 2024 |
LEN
2 - 1
PAN
69%
19%
12%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
ANG
0 - 1
LEN
21%
24%
56%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
LEN
3 - 0
LEI
47%
24%
29%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2024 |
VER
1 - 3
LEN
10%
21%
69%
|
88 | 61 | 27 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
LEN
2 - 2
LEV
17%
21%
62%
|
88 | 97 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Stade Brestois
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
BRE
1 - 5
MAR
28%
26%
46%
|
84 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
NEW
1 - 0
BRE
72%
18%
11%
|
84 | 93 | 9 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
JUV
2 - 2
BRE
71%
19%
10%
|
84 | 96 | 12 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
NAP
1 - 0
BRE
75%
16%
9%
|
84 | 94 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
BRE
0 - 1
STL
74%
17%
9%
|
84 | 67 | 17 | 0 |