Lens vs Montpellier analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.9%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.9%
3-0
8%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.3%
2-0
11.5%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.1%
1-0
11%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.8%
14.3%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
4%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.9%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
-12%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
3º
9º
7º
15
8º
18º
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
17º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
53 | 85 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
40 | 67 |
2º
|
53.5% | |
|
4º
|
37 | 63 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 59 |
4º
|
25.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 58 |
5º
|
26.5% | |
|
8º
|
30 | 54 |
6º
|
20% | |
|
|
6º
|
33 | 54 |
7º
|
29% | |
|
7º
|
31 | 49 |
8º
|
34.5% | |
|
9º
|
27 | 45 |
9º
|
24% | |
|
10º
|
26 | 44 |
10º
|
19% | |
|
15º
|
20 | 42 |
11º
|
19% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 38 |
12º
|
19% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 37 |
13º
|
21% | |
|
12º
|
23 | 35 |
14º
|
23.5% | |
|
14º
|
21 | 33 |
15º
|
20.5% | |
|
|
17º
|
15 | 30 |
16º
|
20.5% | |
|
16º
|
18 | 30 |
17º
|
24% | |
|
18º
|
14 | 23 |
18º
|
81% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
6% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
8.5% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
12% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
24% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
49.5% | 36% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 20.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 43.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lens
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov. 2024 |
REI
0 - 2
LEN
31%
27%
43%
|
90 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2024 |
LEN
1 - 3
MAR
40%
25%
35%
|
90 | 91 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2024 |
LEN
3 - 2
NAN
71%
19%
10%
|
90 | 80 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
PSG
1 - 0
LEN
70%
18%
12%
|
90 | 94 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
LEN
0 - 2
LIL
41%
27%
32%
|
90 | 92 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Montpellier
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec. 2024 |
MPL
2 - 2
LIL
24%
26%
50%
|
83 | 93 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2024 |
ASS
1 - 0
MPL
35%
25%
41%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
MPL
3 - 1
BRE
37%
25%
38%
|
82 | 87 | 5 | +1 |
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
LHA
1 - 0
MPL
29%
26%
45%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2024 |
MPL
0 - 3
TFC
42%
24%
34%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | -1 |