EFL Trophy Semi-finals
Global 4-4
Leeds United vs Carlisle United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.1%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.8%
4-0
5%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
9.2%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.6%
2-0
12.8%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.2%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.5%
11.5%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Leeds United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan. 2010 |
EXE
2 - 0
LEE
23%
27%
50%
|
76 | 56 | 20 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 2010 |
LEE
1 - 1
WYC
81%
14%
5%
|
76 | 51 | 25 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 2010 |
MUD
0 - 1
LEE
81%
14%
5%
|
75 | 95 | 20 | +1 |
| 28 Dec. 2009 |
STO
2 - 4
LEE
18%
26%
56%
|
75 | 48 | 27 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2009 |
LEE
3 - 1
HAR
76%
17%
8%
|
75 | 56 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
Carlisle United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan. 2010 |
BRE
3 - 1
CUM
44%
27%
30%
|
62 | 60 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 2010 |
EVE
3 - 1
CUM
81%
14%
6%
|
63 | 88 | 25 | -1 |
| 28 Dec. 2009 |
TRA
0 - 0
CUM
39%
27%
34%
|
63 | 58 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2009 |
CUM
3 - 0
BRA
59%
21%
20%
|
62 | 55 | 7 | +1 |
| 12 Dec. 2009 |
CUM
1 - 0
WYC
65%
21%
14%
|
62 | 55 | 7 | 0 |