Lech Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.3%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.2%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.3%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
26.6%
Draw
0-0
8.7%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.6%
26.1%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.7%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.8%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+15%
+15%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
1º
7º
1º
37
2º
8º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
41 | 60 |
1º
|
34.5% | |
|
2º
|
38 | 60 |
2º
|
22% | |
|
|
3º
|
37 | 56 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
4º
|
33 | 55 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 53 |
5º
|
9% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 53 |
6º
|
13% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 51 |
7º
|
12% | |
|
8º
|
29 | 50 |
8º
|
8.5% | |
|
9º
|
26 | 47 |
9º
|
9.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 47 |
10º
|
13.5% | |
|
10º
|
25 | 44 |
11º
|
9.5% | |
|
13º
|
19 | 41 |
12º
|
7% | |
|
12º
|
20 | 39 |
13º
|
11% | |
|
14º
|
19 | 38 |
14º
|
12% | |
|
15º
|
19 | 38 |
15º
|
10% | |
|
16º
|
19 | 38 |
16º
|
10% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 37 |
17º
|
17.5% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 29 |
18º
|
63.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
34.5% | 12.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
40.5% | 38% |
|
Mid-table
|
25% | 49.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lech Poznań
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
LPO
0 - 0
ZNI
58%
23%
20%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2025 |
LPO
4 - 1
WLO
42%
26%
32%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | +1 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
LPO
1 - 7
FCN
30%
24%
46%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | -1 |
| 16 Jan. 2025 |
LPO
0 - 0
BOT
55%
23%
22%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 2025 |
LPO
3 - 1
ČUK
37%
25%
38%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Raków Częstochowa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Feb. 2025 |
RAK
1 - 1
ODR
55%
23%
22%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
CRA
0 - 0
RAK
50%
25%
25%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2025 |
SLI
1 - 0
RAK
58%
22%
20%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | -1 |
| 24 Jan. 2025 |
VAN
2 - 3
RAK
61%
22%
17%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
DIO
0 - 2
RAK
53%
24%
24%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |