Lech Poznań vs Jagiellonia Bialystok analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.4%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
4.1%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.9%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.2%
25.6%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.6%
34%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
19.2%
0-2
5.5%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.7%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
19
1º
7º
1º
12
1º
8º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
19 | 56 |
1º
|
19.5% | |
|
2º
|
16 | 53 |
2º
|
8% | |
|
6º
|
13 | 52 |
3º
|
9% | |
|
7º
|
12 | 52 |
4º
|
7% | |
|
|
8º
|
12 | 52 |
5º
|
9% | |
|
4º
|
14 | 51 |
6º
|
3.5% | |
|
5º
|
14 | 48 |
7º
|
7% | |
|
3º
|
15 | 48 |
8º
|
10% | |
|
13º
|
8 | 47 |
9º
|
5.5% | |
|
11º
|
9 | 46 |
10º
|
9.5% | |
|
15º
|
8 | 45 |
11º
|
2% | |
|
9º
|
9 | 43 |
12º
|
5.5% | |
|
16º
|
6 | 43 |
13º
|
12% | |
|
12º
|
8 | 42 |
14º
|
8.5% | |
|
17º
|
4 | 42 |
15º
|
8% | |
|
14º
|
8 | 42 |
16º
|
5% | |
|
10º
|
9 | 41 |
17º
|
9% | |
|
18º
|
4 | 39 |
18º
|
17.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
19.5% | 9.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
26% | 19% |
|
Mid-table
|
52% | 67% |
|
Relegation
|
2.5% | 4.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lech Poznań
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug. 2024 |
STA
0 - 2
LPO
41%
28%
31%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
LPO
2 - 0
POG
43%
27%
30%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
ZAL
0 - 1
LPO
41%
28%
31%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
RAK
0 - 0
LPO
45%
26%
29%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
LPO
3 - 1
GDA
41%
26%
33%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Jagiellonia Bialystok
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
JAG
1 - 0
WLO
47%
25%
29%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2024 |
AJA
3 - 0
JAG
67%
19%
14%
|
76 | 88 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
GKS
3 - 1
JAG
41%
25%
33%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | -1 |
| 22 Aug. 2024 |
JAG
1 - 4
AJA
20%
20%
60%
|
77 | 88 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
JAG
2 - 4
CRA
51%
25%
24%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |