Coppa Italia 1/16
Global 2-5
Lecce vs ACR Messina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.8%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3%
4-0
5.4%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.2%
3-0
9.9%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
14.1%
2-0
13.6%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.7%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
18%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
18%
10.2%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.6%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lecce
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct. 2001 |
ROM
5 - 1
LEC
74%
16%
10%
|
78 | 90 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2001 |
LEC
4 - 1
FIO
34%
26%
40%
|
78 | 86 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2001 |
VER
2 - 1
LEC
50%
24%
26%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2001 |
LEC
0 - 0
JUV
24%
26%
50%
|
78 | 91 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2001 |
BRE
1 - 1
LEC
53%
24%
23%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
ACR Messina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct. 2001 |
MES
2 - 0
PAL
45%
28%
28%
|
63 | 62 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2001 |
SAL
1 - 2
MES
54%
25%
20%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | +1 |
| 30 Sep. 2001 |
MES
0 - 0
VIC
21%
26%
53%
|
62 | 78 | 16 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2001 |
GEN
3 - 0
MES
70%
19%
11%
|
63 | 70 | 7 | -1 |
| 16 Sep. 2001 |
MES
1 - 1
ANC
37%
28%
35%
|
63 | 65 | 2 | 0 |