Coppa Italia Semi-finals
Global 4-3
Juventus vs Milan analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.8%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.2%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.3%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.5%
30.5%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
8.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.9%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.5%
0-3
2%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Juventus
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 2012 |
FIO
0 - 5
JUV
36%
28%
37%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2012 |
GEN
0 - 0
JUV
35%
26%
39%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2012 |
BOL
1 - 1
JUV
26%
27%
46%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2012 |
JUV
1 - 1
CHI
73%
17%
10%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2012 |
ACM
1 - 1
JUV
59%
23%
18%
|
88 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 2012 |
PAR
0 - 2
ACM
21%
25%
54%
|
90 | 81 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2012 |
ACM
2 - 0
LEC
78%
15%
7%
|
90 | 75 | 15 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2012 |
ARS
3 - 0
ACM
51%
24%
24%
|
90 | 91 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2012 |
PAL
0 - 4
ACM
32%
25%
43%
|
90 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2012 |
ACM
1 - 1
JUV
59%
23%
18%
|
90 | 88 | 2 | 0 |