Copa Colombia Quarter-finals
Global 4-1
Junior vs At. Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.2%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.2%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.2%
25.3%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.3%
33.8%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
8.1%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.9%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.7%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Junior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul. 2022 |
JUN
2 - 0
SFE
50%
25%
25%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2022 |
EQU
0 - 0
JUN
31%
29%
40%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2022 |
JUN
3 - 1
NAC
43%
26%
31%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2022 |
PAT
1 - 0
JUN
17%
28%
55%
|
79 | 63 | 16 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2022 |
NAC
2 - 1
JUN
51%
25%
24%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul. 2022 |
TOL
2 - 2
NAC
40%
27%
33%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2022 |
NAC
1 - 2
MIL
47%
25%
28%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2022 |
JUN
3 - 1
NAC
43%
26%
31%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2022 |
NAC
1 - 1
COR
73%
18%
10%
|
80 | 63 | 17 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 2022 |
TOL
2 - 1
NAC
38%
27%
35%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | -1 |