Jerez vs Castuera analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
36.6%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.7%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.3%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.7%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.8%
25.3%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25.3%
38.1%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
20.3%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
4%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
11.2%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.6%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.5%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+32%
-32%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
28
7º
13º
8º
17
9º
17º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
15º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
5º
|
38 | 71 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
2º
|
41 | 71 |
2º
|
21.5% | |
|
3º
|
40 | 67 |
3º
|
21% | |
|
1º
|
43 | 67 |
4º
|
18.5% | |
|
4º
|
39 | 66 |
5º
|
25% | |
|
6º
|
37 | 61 |
6º
|
43.5% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 51 |
7º
|
28.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
28 | 49 |
8º
|
23.5% | |
|
8º
|
30 | 48 |
9º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
28 | 43 |
10º
|
22% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 41 |
11º
|
19% | |
|
13º
|
20 | 38 |
12º
|
17.5% | |
|
12º
|
21 | 36 |
13º
|
20.5% | |
|
|
15º
|
17 | 35 |
14º
|
20% | |
|
16º
|
17 | 29 |
15º
|
17.5% | |
|
14º
|
18 | 27 |
16º
|
18.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 27 |
17º
|
22.5% | |
|
18º
|
11 | 25 |
18º
|
40.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
99% | 74% |
|
Relegation
|
0.5% | 26% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Jerez
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct. 2024 |
TRU
2 - 2
JER
34%
25%
40%
|
25 | 23 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2024 |
JER
3 - 0
PUE
37%
25%
38%
|
23 | 26 | 3 | +2 |
| 05 Oct. 2024 |
PUE
3 - 3
JER
30%
24%
46%
|
24 | 18 | 6 | -1 |
| 29 Sep. 2024 |
JER
0 - 0
CDE
31%
23%
46%
|
23 | 28 | 5 | +1 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
CFJ
2 - 1
JER
53%
22%
25%
|
24 | 25 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Castuera
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct. 2024 |
CAS
1 - 0
SAM
69%
18%
14%
|
28 | 21 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2024 |
CAL
1 - 0
CAS
36%
25%
40%
|
29 | 25 | 4 | -1 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
CAS
3 - 1
MON
43%
23%
34%
|
27 | 29 | 2 | +2 |
| 29 Sep. 2024 |
VIL
0 - 0
CAS
54%
23%
23%
|
27 | 32 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
CAS
2 - 2
MOR
47%
23%
30%
|
27 | 27 | 0 | 0 |