Série D Brazil 1/16
Global 3-1
J. Malucelli vs Espirito Santo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.5%
Win probability
2
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
6.1%
3-0
9.5%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
13%
2-0
14.2%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.4%
1-0
14.2%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.6%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
19.6%
10.9%
Win probability
0.64
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.2%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
J. Malucelli
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2016 |
ESP
0 - 1
JMA
22%
23%
55%
|
51 | 39 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2016 |
JMA
1 - 1
NOV
49%
27%
24%
|
51 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2016 |
MAD
1 - 2
JMA
33%
26%
40%
|
51 | 46 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Jul. 2016 |
JMA
0 - 0
BRU
39%
27%
35%
|
52 | 53 | 1 | -1 |
| 26 Jun. 2016 |
BRU
2 - 0
JMA
36%
28%
36%
|
54 | 53 | 1 | -2 |
Matches
Espirito Santo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2016 |
ESP
0 - 1
JMA
22%
23%
55%
|
39 | 51 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2016 |
CAL
0 - 1
ESP
67%
21%
12%
|
39 | 51 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2016 |
ESP
1 - 1
AUD
17%
23%
60%
|
39 | 59 | 20 | 0 |
| 03 Jul. 2016 |
BOA
1 - 0
ESP
52%
24%
24%
|
41 | 43 | 2 | -2 |
| 25 Jun. 2016 |
ESP
2 - 0
BOA
30%
24%
46%
|
39 | 45 | 6 | +2 |