Italy U23 vs Nigeria U23 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.6%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.3%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.8%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.5%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
27.6%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16.2%
0-2
4%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.7%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+23%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy U23
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep. 2000 |
ITA
3 - 1
HND
64%
20%
16%
|
60 | 53 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2000 |
AUS
0 - 1
ITA
37%
25%
38%
|
59 | 55 | 4 | +1 |
| 25 Jul. 1996 |
ITA
2 - 1
KOR
53%
24%
23%
|
58 | 58 | 0 | +1 |
| 23 Jul. 1996 |
GHA
3 - 2
ITA
46%
26%
29%
|
59 | 55 | 4 | -1 |
| 21 Jul. 1996 |
MEX
1 - 0
ITA
51%
25%
24%
|
60 | 59 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Nigeria U23
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep. 2000 |
AUS
2 - 3
NGA
34%
25%
41%
|
59 | 54 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2000 |
NGA
3 - 3
HND
64%
20%
16%
|
60 | 53 | 7 | -1 |
| 03 Aug. 1996 |
NGA
3 - 2
ARG
42%
26%
31%
|
58 | 65 | 7 | +2 |
| 31 Jul. 1996 |
NGA
4 - 3
BRA
39%
27%
34%
|
57 | 67 | 10 | +1 |
| 28 Jul. 1996 |
MEX
0 - 2
NGA
59%
23%
18%
|
55 | 60 | 5 | +2 |