Italy U23 vs Iraq U23 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.1%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.5%
2-0
9%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
21%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21%
19.9%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
12.5%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.2%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy U23
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2004 |
ITA
0 - 3
ARG
30%
24%
46%
|
61 | 68 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2004 |
MLI
0 - 1
ITA
22%
23%
55%
|
61 | 52 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2004 |
PAR
1 - 0
ITA
34%
24%
42%
|
62 | 57 | 5 | -1 |
| 15 Aug. 2004 |
JPN
2 - 3
ITA
42%
24%
34%
|
61 | 60 | 1 | +1 |
| 12 Aug. 2004 |
GHA
2 - 2
ITA
34%
24%
42%
|
61 | 57 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Iraq U23
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2004 |
IRQ
1 - 3
PAR
35%
24%
41%
|
56 | 59 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2004 |
IRQ
1 - 0
AUS
45%
24%
31%
|
55 | 55 | 0 | +1 |
| 18 Aug. 2004 |
MAR
2 - 1
IRQ
31%
24%
45%
|
56 | 51 | 5 | -1 |
| 15 Aug. 2004 |
CRC
0 - 2
IRQ
45%
24%
31%
|
55 | 55 | 0 | +1 |
| 12 Aug. 2004 |
IRQ
4 - 2
POR
25%
23%
52%
|
53 | 61 | 8 | +2 |