U21 EC Qualifying Play-offs Final
Global 4-2
Italy U21 vs Sweden U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.5%
Win probability
1.9
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.1%
2-0
12.2%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.6%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.5%
15%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.6%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2012 |
ITA
2 - 4
IRL
78%
16%
6%
|
84 | 56 | 28 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2012 |
ITA
7 - 0
LIE
85%
12%
3%
|
84 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2012 |
NED
0 - 3
ITA
32%
27%
40%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2012 |
IRL
2 - 2
ITA
12%
21%
67%
|
84 | 57 | 27 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2012 |
SCO
1 - 4
ITA
18%
24%
59%
|
83 | 63 | 20 | +1 |
Matches
Sweden U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2012 |
SWE
2 - 1
UKR
55%
23%
22%
|
72 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2012 |
SVN
2 - 1
SWE
23%
24%
53%
|
73 | 58 | 15 | -1 |
| 15 Aug. 2012 |
SWE
0 - 2
ROU
60%
22%
18%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | -1 |
| 13 Jun. 2012 |
SWE
3 - 0
FIN
72%
18%
10%
|
73 | 57 | 16 | +1 |
| 06 Jun. 2012 |
SWE
4 - 0
MLT
83%
13%
4%
|
73 | 37 | 36 | 0 |