UEFA EC U21 Final
Global 3-3
Italy U21 vs Spain U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.4%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.1%
3-0
6%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
11.3%
3-1
5%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.1%
1-0
14.2%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.8%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
8.9%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
25.1%
19.5%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 1986 |
ENG
1 - 1
ITA
50%
24%
26%
|
67 | 55 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1986 |
ITA
2 - 0
ENG
72%
17%
11%
|
67 | 56 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 1986 |
ITA
2 - 1
SWE
68%
18%
14%
|
66 | 58 | 8 | +1 |
| 12 Mar. 1986 |
SWE
1 - 1
ITA
54%
23%
23%
|
66 | 58 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1986 |
ITA
1 - 1
GER
54%
22%
24%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Spain U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep. 1986 |
MAR
0 - 0
ESP
36%
26%
38%
|
65 | 55 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1986 |
ESP
4 - 1
HUN
63%
21%
17%
|
64 | 63 | 1 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 1986 |
HUN
3 - 1
ESP
60%
21%
19%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | -2 |
| 26 Mar. 1986 |
ESP
3 - 1
FRA
65%
20%
16%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | +2 |
| 12 Mar. 1986 |
FRA
1 - 3
ESP
61%
21%
18%
|
63 | 62 | 1 | +1 |