Italy U21 vs Croatia U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.2%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.2%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.7%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.6%
15.2%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2004 |
ITA
2 - 1
SYM
79%
14%
7%
|
79 | 59 | 20 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2004 |
ITA
1 - 2
BLR
72%
17%
11%
|
80 | 66 | 14 | -1 |
| 11 May. 2004 |
ITA
3 - 1
POL
76%
15%
9%
|
80 | 66 | 14 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2004 |
ITA
4 - 0
SWE
61%
22%
16%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | +1 |
| 30 Mar. 2004 |
POR
1 - 3
ITA
51%
23%
26%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Croatia U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2004 |
BLR
1 - 1
CRO
38%
25%
38%
|
70 | 67 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2004 |
SYM
3 - 2
CRO
22%
23%
55%
|
70 | 58 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2004 |
SWE
0 - 2
CRO
54%
23%
23%
|
69 | 71 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Nov. 2003 |
SCO
1 - 0
CRO
34%
26%
40%
|
70 | 62 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 Nov. 2003 |
CRO
2 - 0
SCO
64%
21%
16%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | 0 |