İstanbul Başakşehir vs Kayserispor analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.2%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.3%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.2%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.6%
21.3%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.5%
0-2
3%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
-10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
10
3º
9º
6º
3
13º
17º
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
17º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
18 | 70 |
1º
|
50.5% | |
|
2º
|
13 | 62 |
2º
|
21% | |
|
3º
|
13 | 62 |
3º
|
10% | |
|
14º
|
5 | 54 |
4º
|
6.5% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 54 |
5º
|
8% | |
|
|
5º
|
10 | 54 |
6º
|
9.5% | |
|
11º
|
6 | 52 |
7º
|
7% | |
|
9º
|
8 | 52 |
8º
|
10% | |
|
4º
|
12 | 52 |
9º
|
7.5% | |
|
8º
|
8 | 51 |
10º
|
6.5% | |
|
19º
|
1 | 50 |
11º
|
4% | |
|
10º
|
8 | 48 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
7º
|
9 | 47 |
13º
|
8% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 46 |
14º
|
8.5% | |
|
|
17º
|
3 | 43 |
15º
|
10.5% | |
|
16º
|
4 | 42 |
16º
|
10% | |
|
13º
|
6 | 37 |
17º
|
16% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 36 |
18º
|
17% | |
|
18º
|
2 | 32 |
19º
|
39% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
2% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
5.5% | 0.5% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
9% | 1% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
8.5% | 0.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
71% | 60.5% |
|
Relegation
|
4% | 37.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
İstanbul Başakşehir
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2024 |
SAM
2 - 0
IST
41%
27%
33%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
BOD
0 - 1
IST
34%
27%
40%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
IST
5 - 2
ANT
54%
24%
22%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2024 |
IST
2 - 0
STP
65%
20%
15%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | -1 |
| 22 Aug. 2024 |
STP
0 - 0
IST
32%
27%
41%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Kayserispor
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2024 |
GOZ
3 - 0
KAY
45%
25%
30%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2024 |
TRA
2 - 2
KAY
58%
22%
20%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | +1 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
KAY
2 - 2
EYU
47%
24%
29%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
KON
0 - 0
KAY
50%
25%
25%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
KAY
1 - 2
SIV
39%
25%
35%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |