Copa Libertadores Final
Global 5-2
Independiente vs Unión Española analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.2%
Win probability
2.76
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.1%
5-0
3.1%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.8%
4-0
5.6%
5-1
3.1%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.5%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
5.6%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.6%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.4%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.5%
14.8%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
6.4%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
14.8%
11%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
7.4%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jun. 1975 |
IND
1 - 2
CHA
65%
20%
15%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 1975 |
UNI
1 - 0
IND
56%
22%
22%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | +1 |
| 15 Jun. 1975 |
COL
1 - 0
IND
51%
24%
25%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | -1 |
| 08 Jun. 1975 |
EST
3 - 1
IND
52%
24%
24%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | +1 |
| 06 Jun. 1975 |
IND
3 - 0
CRZ
60%
21%
19%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Unión Española
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jun. 1975 |
UNI
1 - 0
IND
56%
22%
22%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 1975 |
UNI
1 - 1
UNI
66%
19%
16%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1975 |
UNI
2 - 0
LIG
61%
20%
19%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 May. 1975 |
UNI
2 - 1
UNI
51%
22%
27%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1975 |
LIG
4 - 2
UNI
66%
18%
17%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | 0 |