Copa Libertadores Final
Global 4-2
Independiente vs São Paulo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.9%
Win probability
2.31
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.2%
4-0
5%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
8.6%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.9%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.7%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.7%
12.4%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.6%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 1974 |
IND
2 - 0
SAO
69%
18%
13%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 1974 |
SAO
2 - 1
IND
58%
21%
21%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 1974 |
RAC
1 - 1
IND
55%
22%
22%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1974 |
IND
1 - 1
PEÑ
75%
15%
10%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 1974 |
IND
5 - 1
SMA
84%
11%
5%
|
84 | 63 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 1974 |
IND
2 - 0
SAO
69%
18%
13%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 1974 |
SAO
2 - 1
IND
58%
21%
21%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | +1 |
| 02 Oct. 1974 |
SAO
4 - 0
DEF
80%
13%
8%
|
86 | 36 | 50 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1974 |
SAO
4 - 0
MIL
69%
18%
14%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1974 |
DEF
0 - 1
SAO
8%
21%
71%
|
86 | 36 | 50 | 0 |