Independiente vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.9%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.8%
3-0
9.4%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.7%
2-0
14.5%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.3%
1-0
14.8%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.9%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
20.1%
11%
Win probability
0.63
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jun. 1979 |
IND
3 - 2
SLO
69%
19%
12%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Jun. 1979 |
IND
1 - 0
BOC
59%
23%
18%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Jun. 1979 |
CEN
4 - 2
IND
40%
27%
33%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 May. 1979 |
IND
1 - 0
ATL
73%
17%
10%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | +1 |
| 10 May. 1979 |
PEÑ
0 - 0
IND
46%
26%
28%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May. 1979 |
BOC
1 - 0
PEÑ
64%
22%
14%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 May. 1979 |
PEÑ
0 - 0
IND
46%
26%
28%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 1979 |
NAC
0 - 2
PEÑ
55%
24%
21%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | +1 |
| 05 Apr. 1979 |
TEC
0 - 1
PEÑ
28%
26%
46%
|
81 | 67 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 1979 |
NAC
1 - 1
PEÑ
61%
24%
16%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |