Independiente vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.7%
Win probability
2.68
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.7%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
2.9%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.4%
3-0
8.8%
4-1
5.4%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.7%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.8%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.9%
14.9%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
14.9%
10.4%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
2.5%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
7.1%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
+24%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep. 1974 |
IND
5 - 1
SMA
84%
11%
5%
|
84 | 63 | 21 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 1974 |
ATT
2 - 2
IND
44%
24%
32%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1974 |
IND
3 - 0
HUR
56%
22%
22%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1974 |
PEÑ
2 - 3
IND
49%
25%
26%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 1974 |
SLM
1 - 1
IND
25%
22%
53%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep. 1974 |
HUR
0 - 3
PEÑ
76%
14%
10%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1974 |
PEÑ
2 - 3
IND
49%
25%
26%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | -1 |
| 11 Sep. 1974 |
PEÑ
1 - 1
HUR
47%
25%
29%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 1974 |
CCP
1 - 1
PEÑ
60%
21%
19%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1974 |
OLI
0 - 2
PEÑ
49%
26%
26%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | +1 |