Copa Libertadores Final
Global 1-0
Independiente vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.1%
Win probability
2.46
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.2%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.1%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.2%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
17.8%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17.8%
16.1%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.1%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug. 1964 |
NAC
0 - 0
IND
69%
17%
15%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 1964 |
IND
1 - 1
BOC
56%
23%
21%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 1964 |
GLP
2 - 3
IND
39%
24%
37%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 1964 |
IND
2 - 1
SAN
51%
22%
26%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 1964 |
RIV
2 - 1
IND
56%
22%
22%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug. 1964 |
NAC
0 - 0
IND
69%
17%
15%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 1964 |
NAC
4 - 2
COL
66%
18%
16%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | +1 |
| 15 Jul. 1964 |
COL
2 - 4
NAC
54%
21%
25%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 May. 1964 |
NAC
2 - 0
CCP
74%
15%
12%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | +1 |
| 03 May. 1964 |
AUR
0 - 3
NAC
46%
23%
32%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | 0 |