Conmebol Sudamericana Final
Global 3-2
Independiente vs Flamengo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.6%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.6%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.6%
1-0
13.1%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
27.4%
Draw
0-0
9.6%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.4%
27%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
9.4%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.3%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov. 2017 |
IND
3 - 1
LIB
57%
25%
18%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2017 |
RAC
0 - 1
IND
44%
27%
30%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | +1 |
| 22 Nov. 2017 |
LIB
1 - 0
IND
34%
28%
39%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | -1 |
| 19 Nov. 2017 |
IND
1 - 0
RIV
42%
26%
32%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | +1 |
| 05 Nov. 2017 |
BEL
0 - 0
IND
24%
28%
48%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Flamengo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Dec. 2017 |
VIT
1 - 2
FLA
37%
26%
37%
|
85 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2017 |
JUN
0 - 2
FLA
39%
27%
33%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | +1 |
| 26 Nov. 2017 |
FLA
1 - 2
SAN
49%
25%
26%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | -1 |
| 24 Nov. 2017 |
FLA
2 - 1
JUN
61%
22%
17%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | +1 |
| 19 Nov. 2017 |
FLA
3 - 0
COR
40%
27%
34%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | 0 |