Série D Brazil Last 16
Global 3-2
Independiente PA vs Peñarol AC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.7%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.8%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.7%
26.6%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
7.3%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.2%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.2%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independiente PA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep. 2011 |
PEN
1 - 0
IND
46%
25%
29%
|
44 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2011 |
IND
1 - 0
TDC
53%
23%
24%
|
44 | 41 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2011 |
CAC
1 - 2
IND
42%
26%
33%
|
43 | 42 | 1 | +1 |
| 28 Aug. 2011 |
IND
2 - 1
SAM
32%
25%
43%
|
42 | 51 | 9 | +1 |
| 21 Aug. 2011 |
REC
1 - 1
IND
52%
23%
25%
|
42 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol AC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep. 2011 |
PEN
1 - 0
IND
46%
25%
29%
|
44 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2011 |
CUI
4 - 0
PEN
67%
19%
14%
|
46 | 50 | 4 | -2 |
| 03 Sep. 2011 |
PEN
3 - 1
NAC
55%
23%
22%
|
45 | 40 | 5 | +1 |
| 28 Aug. 2011 |
PLA
0 - 0
PEN
33%
26%
41%
|
45 | 36 | 9 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2011 |
PEN
1 - 0
VIL
60%
23%
17%
|
45 | 41 | 4 | 0 |