Independiente Huachog vs Castle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.2%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
4%
2-0
3.4%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.1%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
6.9%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
16.1%
21.2%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.2%
47.6%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
4.8%
3-4
1.4%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
20.2%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
5.9%
2-4
2.5%
3-5
0.6%
4-6
0.1%
-2
14.2%
0-3
3.6%
1-4
3%
2-5
1%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
7.8%
0-4
1.8%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0.1%
-4
3.5%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
1.3%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independiente Huachog
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
SAF
4 - 1
IND
32%
21%
47%
|
7 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2023 |
IND
3 - 2
ESC
39%
22%
40%
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Castle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
CFC
2 - 0
INM
34%
22%
44%
|
6 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2023 |
ECO
1 - 0
CFC
77%
14%
9%
|
7 | 27 | 20 | -1 |