Independente SP vs Guaçuano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.6%
Win probability
1.7
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.8%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.1%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.9%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
11%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
29.6%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.9%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independente SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar. 2012 |
OSV
1 - 0
IND
27%
24%
49%
|
46 | 36 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2012 |
IND
3 - 0
CAP
35%
24%
41%
|
45 | 51 | 6 | +1 |
| 04 Mar. 2012 |
GRE
2 - 1
IND
50%
23%
26%
|
45 | 46 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 2012 |
RIO
1 - 1
IND
79%
13%
8%
|
45 | 59 | 14 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2012 |
IND
1 - 2
TAU
55%
22%
23%
|
46 | 42 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Guaçuano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar. 2012 |
GUA
2 - 2
GRE
44%
24%
32%
|
46 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2012 |
GUA
4 - 0
JUV
38%
25%
37%
|
44 | 48 | 4 | +2 |
| 03 Mar. 2012 |
CAP
0 - 5
GUA
68%
19%
13%
|
41 | 52 | 11 | +3 |
| 01 Mar. 2012 |
GUA
2 - 2
FRA
36%
25%
39%
|
41 | 47 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2012 |
SER
1 - 1
GUA
51%
24%
25%
|
41 | 45 | 4 | 0 |