Independente SP vs XV de Novembro analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.5%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.7%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.4%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.2%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.9%
28.7%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
7%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16.6%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-15%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independente SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 2012 |
IND
0 - 1
MAR
28%
23%
49%
|
45 | 53 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2012 |
TAB
1 - 0
IND
29%
25%
46%
|
46 | 36 | 10 | -1 |
| 21 Mar. 2012 |
BEB
0 - 0
IND
31%
25%
45%
|
46 | 38 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2012 |
IND
3 - 1
BAT
33%
25%
42%
|
45 | 51 | 6 | +1 |
| 16 Mar. 2012 |
IND
0 - 1
GUA
47%
24%
30%
|
45 | 46 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
XV de Novembro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 2012 |
ECN
1 - 1
INT
40%
26%
34%
|
44 | 48 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2012 |
TAU
1 - 0
ECN
43%
24%
32%
|
44 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2012 |
ECN
1 - 0
MAR
25%
24%
51%
|
43 | 53 | 10 | +1 |
| 18 Mar. 2012 |
OSV
0 - 3
ECN
41%
25%
34%
|
42 | 41 | 1 | +1 |
| 15 Mar. 2012 |
RIO
0 - 1
ECN
82%
12%
7%
|
41 | 59 | 18 | +1 |