Independente SP vs Comercial analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.7%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
5%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.3%
1-0
13.1%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
8.3%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.2%
21.8%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independente SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov. 2015 |
PEN
0 - 0
IND
49%
26%
25%
|
54 | 57 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2015 |
IND
1 - 1
PEN
32%
27%
41%
|
54 | 57 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2015 |
ITU
0 - 1
IND
64%
22%
14%
|
53 | 64 | 11 | +1 |
| 15 Oct. 2015 |
IND
2 - 1
SAO
26%
26%
48%
|
52 | 60 | 8 | +1 |
| 10 Oct. 2015 |
IND
1 - 1
MIR
23%
25%
52%
|
52 | 61 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr. 2016 |
COM
3 - 1
RIO
37%
27%
37%
|
47 | 50 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2016 |
OLI
2 - 2
COM
39%
27%
34%
|
47 | 44 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2016 |
SJS
2 - 3
COM
41%
25%
34%
|
46 | 43 | 3 | +1 |
| 24 Mar. 2016 |
COM
2 - 0
ATI
31%
24%
45%
|
45 | 50 | 5 | +1 |
| 19 Mar. 2016 |
NOR
0 - 0
COM
38%
27%
35%
|
44 | 39 | 5 | +1 |