Independente SP vs Comercial analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
30.8%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
2%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3%
2-0
5%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.6%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.1%
25.7%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.7%
43.5%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
22.2%
0-2
7.5%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
13%
0-3
3.7%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.6%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independente SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul. 2013 |
SER
2 - 1
IND
43%
25%
33%
|
48 | 47 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2013 |
FLA
4 - 2
IND
83%
12%
5%
|
49 | 76 | 27 | -1 |
| 10 May. 2013 |
IND
0 - 0
BAT
44%
25%
31%
|
49 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2013 |
IND
0 - 2
MAR
44%
24%
33%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 2013 |
MAR
1 - 1
IND
48%
24%
29%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul. 2013 |
COM
0 - 0
XVD
37%
27%
37%
|
57 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2013 |
COM
0 - 1
CAP
56%
22%
22%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2013 |
CAT
0 - 0
COM
44%
26%
30%
|
57 | 55 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2013 |
POR
1 - 0
COM
71%
19%
10%
|
58 | 74 | 16 | -1 |
| 13 Apr. 2013 |
COM
7 - 0
POR
20%
24%
56%
|
55 | 75 | 20 | +3 |