Independente AP vs Oratorio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.6%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.6%
3-0
5%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.8%
2-0
7%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16.7%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
20.7%
23.8%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.7%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-10%
+36%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independente AP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May. 2023 |
IAP
3 - 0
SPM
63%
19%
19%
|
32 | 18 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2023 |
IAP
3 - 1
YAP
61%
19%
19%
|
32 | 20 | 12 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2023 |
SAN
1 - 2
IAP
43%
23%
34%
|
30 | 31 | 1 | +2 |
| 26 Jul. 2022 |
TDC
1 - 1
IAP
37%
23%
40%
|
30 | 28 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2022 |
IAP
2 - 2
TDC
42%
22%
36%
|
30 | 28 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Oratorio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 May. 2023 |
YAP
1 - 1
ORC
26%
22%
53%
|
23 | 20 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2023 |
ORC
2 - 0
TDC
23%
19%
57%
|
21 | 29 | 8 | +2 |
| 13 May. 2023 |
SEC
1 - 3
ORC
35%
22%
44%
|
21 | 19 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2022 |
SAN
4 - 1
ORC
60%
20%
20%
|
21 | 30 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 2022 |
ORC
5 - 2
YAP
36%
22%
41%
|
20 | 22 | 2 | +1 |