Horsham vs Virginia Water analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.4%
Win probability
2.62
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.7%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.2%
4-0
5.4%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.8%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.3%
15.8%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
7%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
15.8%
11.8%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
8%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Horsham
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug. 2024 |
HOR
1 - 3
DOV
66%
19%
15%
|
43 | 35 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
HTG
1 - 4
HOR
39%
25%
36%
|
42 | 38 | 4 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
HOR
3 - 2
POT
69%
17%
14%
|
41 | 32 | 9 | +1 |
| 13 Aug. 2024 |
HOR
2 - 1
CHI
65%
20%
15%
|
41 | 34 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
HAS
2 - 0
HOR
39%
26%
35%
|
42 | 40 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Virginia Water
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
VIR
2 - 1
ASC
29%
22%
50%
|
18 | 22 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2024 |
ASC
3 - 3
VIR
48%
22%
29%
|
18 | 21 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2024 |
NOR
0 - 1
VIR
50%
21%
29%
|
18 | 17 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2024 |
W&C
1 - 4
VIR
40%
23%
38%
|
17 | 15 | 2 | +1 |
| 20 Apr. 2024 |
VIR
0 - 1
CHA
76%
15%
9%
|
19 | 9 | 10 | -2 |