Hornau vs Fernwald analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
16.5%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.4%
2-0
1.9%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
4.3%
1-0
3.2%
2-1
4.5%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
10.4%
18.1%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.1%
65.4%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
4.4%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
21.8%
0-2
8.2%
1-3
7.7%
2-4
2.7%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
19.1%
0-3
6.6%
1-4
4.7%
2-5
1.3%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
12.8%
0-4
4%
1-5
2.3%
2-6
0.5%
3-7
0.1%
-4
6.9%
0-5
2%
1-6
0.9%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
3.1%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0.1%
-6
1.2%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-10%
+16%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
18º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
12
16º
18º
18º
41
1º
5º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
46 | 73 |
1º
|
46.5% | |
|
2º
|
41 | 71 |
2º
|
30% | |
|
4º
|
38 | 68 |
3º
|
27.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
41 | 65 |
4º
|
20% | |
|
5º
|
36 | 59 |
5º
|
19.5% | |
|
6º
|
35 | 55 |
6º
|
10% | |
|
7º
|
33 | 52 |
7º
|
11% | |
|
12º
|
28 | 52 |
8º
|
12.5% | |
|
9º
|
31 | 52 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
10º
|
30 | 51 |
10º
|
8.5% | |
|
14º
|
26 | 50 |
11º
|
7.5% | |
|
8º
|
32 | 50 |
12º
|
7% | |
|
11º
|
29 | 47 |
13º
|
11.5% | |
|
13º
|
27 | 45 |
14º
|
13% | |
|
16º
|
25 | 43 |
15º
|
12% | |
|
15º
|
26 | 40 |
16º
|
23.5% | |
|
17º
|
21 | 36 |
17º
|
37% | |
|
|
18º
|
12 | 24 |
18º
|
52% | |
|
19º
|
12 | 23 |
19º
|
62.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 8% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 19.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
37% | 72.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
63% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hornau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
RWW
3 - 0
HOR
80%
12%
8%
|
21 | 36 | 15 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
SMA
3 - 3
HOR
83%
11%
6%
|
21 | 48 | 27 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
SVZ
1 - 11
HOR
25%
20%
55%
|
20 | 14 | 6 | +1 |
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
HOR
2 - 1
FNA
75%
15%
10%
|
20 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| 07 Jul. 2024 |
HOR
2 - 1
KIC
31%
21%
49%
|
20 | 24 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Fernwald
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
FER
3 - 1
EIN
71%
16%
13%
|
38 | 30 | 8 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
FER
3 - 0
SUF
56%
19%
26%
|
38 | 33 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2024 |
FCH
3 - 5
FER
33%
23%
44%
|
37 | 30 | 7 | +1 |
| 25 May. 2024 |
FER
2 - 2
STE
71%
16%
13%
|
38 | 29 | 9 | -1 |
| 17 May. 2024 |
TUR
3 - 1
FER
71%
17%
12%
|
39 | 48 | 9 | -1 |