Cup Winners Cup 1/16
Global 1-7
Home Farm vs Lens analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.7%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.5%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
4.1%
2-0
3.3%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
9.3%
1-0
4%
2-1
6.9%
3-2
4%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
16.2%
21.1%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.7%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.1%
47.2%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
4.9%
3-4
1.4%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
20%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
5.8%
2-4
2.5%
3-5
0.6%
4-6
0.1%
-2
14.1%
0-3
3.5%
1-4
3%
2-5
1%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
7.8%
0-4
1.8%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0.1%
-4
3.5%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
1.3%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lens
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 1975 |
LEN
1 - 1
NÎM
58%
23%
19%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 1975 |
LIL
4 - 2
LEN
49%
26%
25%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | -1 |
| 27 Aug. 1975 |
LEN
3 - 3
PSG
60%
22%
18%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 1975 |
ASS
2 - 0
LEN
74%
16%
10%
|
73 | 84 | 11 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 1975 |
LEN
2 - 3
MAR
47%
24%
29%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | -1 |