Holyhead Hotspur vs Cefn Druids AFC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
14.5%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1%
2-0
1.7%
3-1
1.4%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
3.6%
1-0
3.3%
2-1
4.1%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.5%
17.8%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
8%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.8%
67.8%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
3.9%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.3%
0-2
9.4%
1-3
7.7%
2-4
2.4%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
19.9%
0-3
7.5%
1-4
4.6%
2-5
1.1%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
13.4%
0-4
4.5%
1-5
2.2%
2-6
0.5%
3-7
0.1%
-4
7.2%
0-5
2.2%
1-6
0.9%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
3.2%
0-6
0.9%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.2%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
16
9º
16º
15º
43
4º
13º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
82 | 85 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
77 | 77 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
65 | 65 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
54 | 57 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
48 | 51 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
43 | 46 |
6º
|
50% | |
|
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
50% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
32 | 35 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
35 | 35 |
10º
|
0% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 31 |
11º
|
49% | |
|
12º
|
27 | 28 |
12º
|
63.5% | |
|
13º
|
26 | 26 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
23 | 23 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
|
15º
|
16 | 16 |
15º
|
68% | |
|
16º
|
16 | 16 |
16º
|
68% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Holyhead Hotspur
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
MOL
3 - 1
HOL
76%
14%
11%
|
23 | 29 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2023 |
HOL
1 - 1
PEN
42%
23%
35%
|
23 | 24 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
HOL
0 - 4
GUI
11%
17%
72%
|
25 | 45 | 20 | -2 |
| 18 Feb. 2023 |
LLA
3 - 1
HOL
58%
20%
21%
|
25 | 28 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
HOL
0 - 2
GRE
24%
23%
53%
|
26 | 36 | 10 | -1 |
Matches
Cefn Druids AFC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar. 2023 |
CEF
1 - 3
POR
77%
13%
10%
|
36 | 27 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
HOL
4 - 0
CEF
79%
14%
7%
|
37 | 53 | 16 | -1 |
| 17 Feb. 2023 |
CEF
3 - 0
CON
77%
13%
10%
|
36 | 26 | 10 | +1 |
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
COL
4 - 1
CEF
81%
12%
6%
|
36 | 53 | 17 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 2023 |
CEF
0 - 2
GUI
40%
24%
37%
|
37 | 44 | 7 | -1 |