Bundesliga Playoffs Promotion Final
Global 3-4
Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.1%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.7%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.6%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
24.8%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.3%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hertha BSC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 May. 2012 |
HER
3 - 1
HOF
38%
26%
36%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2012 |
S04
4 - 0
HER
69%
19%
13%
|
78 | 87 | 9 | -1 |
| 21 Apr. 2012 |
HER
1 - 2
KAI
52%
25%
23%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2012 |
LEV
3 - 3
HER
68%
19%
13%
|
78 | 86 | 8 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2012 |
HER
1 - 2
SCF
45%
26%
29%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Fortuna Düsseldorf
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 May. 2012 |
F95
2 - 2
MSV
60%
24%
17%
|
77 | 69 | 8 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2012 |
SGF
1 - 1
F95
55%
24%
22%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | +1 |
| 22 Apr. 2012 |
F95
2 - 1
FCU
61%
23%
16%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2012 |
SGD
2 - 1
F95
28%
27%
45%
|
77 | 65 | 12 | -1 |
| 10 Apr. 2012 |
F95
1 - 0
FSV
70%
20%
11%
|
76 | 61 | 15 | +1 |